The Value Of “Compared To What”

By:  Doug Busselman, Executive Vice President

As we have started looking at the budget proposal prepared by Geoffrey Lawrence, Fiscal Policy Analyst for the Nevada Policy Research Institute we have already started to see on very beneficial aspect.  It offers a reference point to compare with the alternatives that are out there now, namely the budget proposal offered by Governor Jim Gibbons.  (The Nevada Legislature’s Budget – to be created with “transparency” has yet to come out from behind the closed door sessions where those deciding…and their invited guest – has been finalized for our beholding.)

Here’s what we know so far, based on the results of the Economic Forum’s projections for income for the coming two years:

First, the Governor’s budget, which includes the revenue from the third largest tax increase in Nevada’s history (already passed by the 2009 Nevada Legislature); also includes a “redirection” (anywhere outside of government referred to as “stealing”) of four percent of Washoe and Clark Counties’ property tax revenues – is about $900 million from being balanced.  We also understand that there is probably $350 million (based on the Governor staff’s calculations) coming from our benevolent federal government in stimulus funds to provide some gap-filling of the hole.

We also know that the proposal offered by the Nevada Policy Research Institute fits within (and is actually below) the anticipated $5.3 billion of revenue forecast for the coming biennium.  We also know that the NPRI proposed budget doesn’t require any tax increases and doesn’t rely on federal stimulus money, which will require additional spending to meet the requirement of “maintained effort” as dictated by our Uncle who lives in Washington, D.C.

Without insight of the “transparent” Legislative Budget system, being delivered by the ruling party in Carson City, we aren’t able to completely compare yet their proposal, but we do know (since they’ve been none to secretive of that point) that they believe the Governor’s budget is woefully inadequate.  Based on media accounts following the “behind closed door meetings” with those chosen for consultation, it would seem that the Legislators in Charge believe there should definitely be another $62-plus million added to what the Governor is proposing – and they aren’t quite sure yet, but just less than $14 million might be also required.

On the back-of-the-envelope calculator that I’m using it would seem that the Legislator’s offering, when it comes out from behind the closed doors, will require something like $626 million in additional tax increases to work.  This could be altered by the creative math that they seem to be working with, including the hints that they believe there’s more that they can tap into by way of federal stimulus money.

Doing The Side-By-Side:
When we do get the budget proposal from the Nevada Legislature, we will be able to plug the line-item-by-line-item numbers on a side-by-side comparison.  We can put the actual spending levels for these line-items from the past (or even the current fiscal year) and plot how each of the alternatives tracks.  When the number of whichever budget proposal is less than the actual spending that has been done – we will be able to see it as being a “cut”.  When the number of whichever budget proposal is more than the actual spending that has been done – we will be able to identify is as actually being an increase.

As we compare on this side-by-side scale, we will also be able to highlight the differences and ask more specific questions…like, “when you propose to spend this extra million or so for this, what are we as taxpayers getting for those extra dollars that you’ve spent”.

Although we’re still waiting for the “transparency” we were promised, eventually we might be able to obtain the “accountability” we should have, if we decide to take advantage of understanding “Compared To What”.

 

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